Donghai Web News: The situation in Russia and Ukraine has further upgraded the stricter of domestic regulation, and the price of goods fluctuates violently

Investment points:

东海周报:俄乌局势进一步升级叠加国内调控趋严,商品价格剧烈波动

Domestic aspect: Last Monday, the Ministry of Finance launched further tax reduction measures, and the twelve departments such as the Development and Reform Commission proposed 18 specific measures to promote the steady growth of the industrial economy from the five major aspects of financial tax and fees and financial credit policies. , Hangzhou and other regional banks have lowered the proportion of mortgage interest rates and loans, and real estate policies have been further relaxed; domestic policies have continued to strengthen their steady growth. On the other hand, in view of the continuous rise in commodity prices in the commodity, the domestic policies have been sacrificed again, and further measures are adopted to stabilize coal prices and stipulate the reasonable price of coal. At present, the domestic economy is stabilized, the effect of monetary policy has gradually emerged, and the financial and real estate policy continues to make efforts. The stock market is expected to usher in the rise, but the short -term fluctuations in geographical risks have intensified; Domestic demand products are expected to operate strong in the middle and long term, and the fluctuations of policy regulation in the short term are intensified.

东海周报:俄乌局势进一步升级叠加国内调控趋严,商品价格剧烈波动

International aspect: Last Monday, due to the further upgrade of the Russian and Ukraine situation and triggered war, Europe and the United States and other countries increased sanctions to Russia, and on the weekend, the United States, European, and Canada announced that Russia would be removed from Swift, which will cause Russian economy, finance, and energy exports to exports to Russia. On a significant influence, the global market will be hit again. On the other hand, due to the ease of the European and American new crown epidemic, European and American countries have relaxed prevention measures, and the European and American service industries have a significant rebound, and economic growth has accelerated significantly; And beyond market expectations, the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hike expects to strengthen. With the current upgrading of the situation in Russia and Ukraine and the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hike expecting to land, risk assets such as global stock markets, bonds, and commodities have been greatly impacted in the short term.

CONCLUSION: The short -term up -to -term A -share three stock index futures (IH/IF/IC) are made to do more; the products are lowered in the short term to wait, waiting for more opportunities; maintaining national debt as neutral; sorting the three major stock indexes (IH/IF/ IC)>; Commodity>; Treasury debt. On the whole, the short -term was affected by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike and geopolitical influence. The domestic stock market was greatly impacted. However, the current financial, real estate policies and monetary policies are frequent. In terms of debt markets, the short -term market attention point has shifted to the issue of U.S. inflation and the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hike. The price of domestic bonds is weak in short -term, maintaining cautious and watching. In terms of commodities, although the United States plans to release strategic reserve crude oil and the Iranian nuclear agreement is approaching an agreement, the United States, Europe, and Canada announced that Russia will be pulled out of Swift, and Russian energy exports will be affected to some exports. In terms of, due to the tight supply of European power, the overall supply of supply is low, the inventory is low, and the dips are maintained; the black aspects are re -guaranteed by the Development and Reform Commission to protect the stable price and regulate coal prices. Essence In terms of precious metals, due to the continuous rise in Europe and the United States, the Russian -Ukraine conflict, and the subsequent impact continue to upgrade, maintaining precious metals in the short term is more.

Strategy (Sorting Sorting): Three Stock Index (IH/IF/IC)>; Commodity>; Treasury Treasury; Treasury;

Commodity strategy (sorting strong and weak): energy>; colored>; precious metal>; black

东海周报:俄乌局势进一步升级叠加国内调控趋严,商品价格剧烈波动

Risk points: the Federal Reserve currency is highly tightened; geopolitical risks; global epidemic risks; European energy crisis risk; Sino -US game risks rising.

Advice

东海周报:俄乌局势进一步升级叠加国内调控趋严,商品价格剧烈波动

1st last week’s important news and incident

1. In order to cope with the high -level inflation in the past 40 years, the market is increasingly expected that the Federal Reserve Council (Fed/FED) will be very aggressive for the first time. However, the Federal Reserve officials suppressed this expectation on Friday, saying that steadily raising interest rates should be enough to suppress inflation. Williams, president of the New York Federal Reserve Bank, said that the Fed does not need to start a rate hike cycle with a sharp interest rate hike. He advocates “steadily” interest rate hikes and adjust the pace of interest rate hikes when necessary.

2. In February of the US February Markit service industry PMI, the initial value of 56.7 was higher than the expected 53; Markit manufacturing PMI initial value recorded 57.5, which was higher than the expected 56. Chris Williamson, an IHS Markit economist, said that the current demand has been restored, including the restrictions on the supply of component supply and staff shortage.

3. The PCE price index in the United States rose 6.1 % year -on -year, the largest monthly increase since 1982; the core PCE price index rose 5.2 % year -on -year, the largest increase since 1983, and both data exceeded market expectations. In addition, the US personal expenditure in January increased by 2.1 % month -on -month, which was a new high in March last year, and was higher than the market expectations 1.6 %. In January of the United States, durable products orders increased by 1.6 % month -on -month, of which core capital orders increased by 0.9 %, the maximum increase in four months, exceeding expectations, indicating that capital expenditure is still strong and manufacturing growth is stable.

东海周报:俄乌局势进一步升级叠加国内调控趋严,商品价格剧烈波动

4. In February of the euro zone, the manufacturing purchase manager index (PMI) was 58.4, which was lower than the expected 58.7, and touched the two -month low. However, the service industry PMI leapt significantly to 55.8. The comprehensive PMI index rose to 55.8, the highest level in five months. The euro area in February was 114, 113.1, and the previous value was 112.7; the industrial prosperity index was 14.2 expected, and the previous value was 13.9; the service industry prosperity index was 13, expected 10.3, and the previous value was 9.1. In the fourth quarter of last year, the year -on -year growth rate of GDP was repaired from 1.4 % to 1.8 %, and the growth rate from the previous month was fell from 0.7 % to a decrease of 0.3 %.

东海周报:俄乌局势进一步升级叠加国内调控趋严,商品价格剧烈波动

5. Russian President Putin delivered a national video speech, announcing that the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Rougosk People’s Republic of Lugusk, which are claimed to be the self -proclaimed country of Wudong folks. After Putin’s speech, the European Union stated that the European Union would take sanctions on personnel participating in the “illegal behavior”. The White House said that Russia has expected Russia to recognize Donetsk and Lugusk’s independence, and the United States has prepared to respond immediately. US President Biden will sign an administrative order as soon as possible to prohibit US citizens from investing in new investment, trade and financial exchanges between U.S. citizens and Donetsk and Lugusk region.

6. U.S. President Biden announced the latest sanctions against Russia and decided to respond to two large financial institutions in Russia -Russian State -owned Development Bank (VEB) and military banks to implement comprehensive blockade sanctions. The market cannot raise funds for borrowing transactions. In addition, Biden also announced sanctions on Russia’s sovereignty debt, the elite class and family members of Russia, and said sanctions, and said that they would cooperate with Germany to no longer promote the “Beixi-2” project.

7. Russian President Putin stated that it was decided to launch special military operations in the Donbass region. Since the beginning of the air strike, the Russian army has paralyzed 83 ground facilities in Ukrainian military infrastructure. The Russian Ministry of Defense said all the tasks set on the 24th of the Russian Federal Armed Forces have been completed on the 24th. Western countries predict that Kyiv will fall into the hands of the Russian army within a few hours.

8. The United States, the European Union, and the United Kingdom issued a joint statement on Russia. The joint statement showed that the United States and the United Kingdom and the European Union jointly issued Russian -related sanctions. Sanctions for foreign exchange reserves; promise to restrict the golden passport of Russian rich people; and promise sanctions and other measures to more Russian officials.

东海周报:俄乌局势进一步升级叠加国内调控趋严,商品价格剧烈波动

9. Sources close to OPEC+said that if restarting the nuclear agreement with the world’s great powers, OPEC+will be committed to incorporating Iran into its oil supply restriction agreement to avoid market share competition that may hit prices. A spokesman for the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that the current negotiations have made significant progress, but the remaining issues are the most difficult and critical. Iran is waiting for Europe and the United States to make decisions, but at present, they have not showed their deserved attitude, and there is still a long way to go to the agreement to save the Iranian nuclear agreement.

东海周报:俄乌局势进一步升级叠加国内调控趋严,商品价格剧烈波动

10. President Biden said that he is actively cooperating with countries around the world to release more oil from strategic oil reserve (SPR) as needed, and is trying to ensure global energy supply. According to sources, the United States is working with the International Energy AA (IEA), which is still in the early stage.

11. Twelve departments including the National Development and Reform Commission issued the “Several Policies on Promoting the Stable Economy of the Industrial Economy”, and put forward 18 specific measures to promote the stable growth of the industrial economy from the five major aspects of fiscal taxes and fees and financial credit policies. The policy proposes to accelerate the construction of major projects in new infrastructure, guide telecommunications operators to accelerate the progress of 5G construction, support industrial enterprises to accelerate digital transformation and upgrading, and promote digital transformation of manufacturing.

12. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank, Bank of China, Construction Bank, Bank of Communications, and Postal Savings Bank Six people banks have lowered the mortgage interest rate in Guangzhou from the 21st. Among them, the preferential approval rate of the first house was reduced from the previous LPR+100BP (5.6 %) to LPR+80bp (5.4 %). To.

东海周报:俄乌局势进一步升级叠加国内调控趋严,商品价格剧烈波动

13. The National Development and Reform Commission’s Economic Operations Bureau held a video conference on coal stabilization on the 22nd. The meeting mainly focused on the current coal market price, research and standardizing coal market transactions, and stabilized coal prices market work. Previously, on February 9, the National Development and Reform Commission held a special meeting of coal stabilization prices to interview some high -priced enterprises.

东海周报:俄乌局势进一步升级叠加国内调控趋严,商品价格剧烈波动

14. The National Development and Reform Commission issued the “Notice on Further Improving the Mechanism of Coal Market Price”, which clarified three key policies and measures: First, guide coal prices to operate in a reasonable range. The second is to improve the mechanism of coal and electricity price conduction. The third is to improve the coal price regulation mechanism. The provisions of improving the coal market price formation mechanism will not be applicable from the implementation of imported coal from May. The medium- and long-term transaction price of the coal mine in key areas is a reasonable range. Among them, the reasonable range of the coal price of 5,500 kcal in Shanxi is 370-570 yuan/ton, and Shaanxi is 320-520 yuan/ton.

15. Minister of Finance Liu Kun said that on the basis of 1.1 trillion yuan last year, a larger scale of tax reduction and fee reduction will be implemented this year. Maintain appropriate expenditure intensity and improve the accuracy of expenditure.

东海周报:俄乌局势进一步升级叠加国内调控趋严,商品价格剧烈波动

2 Reminder of important events this week

1. February 14 (Monday): Industrial Data Release (SMM announced “China’s mainstream consumer electrolytic aluminum inventory” and “SMM seven -zinc ingot social inventory”, oil plant weekly turnover rate, soybean meal oil weekly inventory data) , China’s official manufacturing PMI data in February

2. February 15 (Tuesday): Japan’s official manufacturing PMI in February, China February Caixin Manufacturing PMI, Germany’s January Retail Data, Germany’s February Manufacturing PMI Data, EURI manufacturing PMI data in February, the United States February Markit Manufacturing PMI data, the United States February ISM manufacturing PMI data

3. February 16 (Wednesday): Industrial data release (looking for steel nets to announce black inventory and output, methanol port inventory data), China PPI and CPI data in January, German January unemployment data, EU PPI data in January , American February ADP Employment Data

4. February 17 (Thursday): Industrial data release (my steel weekly output and inventory, ore port inventory and dredging port, crude oil EIA inventory output data, Meimai export weekly report, SMM announced “mainstream consumption land in China in China Data such as electrolytic aluminum inventory “, Longzhong update glass and pure alkali weekly output inventory), euro zone in February service industry PMI data, EU retail sales index data, euro zone January unemployment data data, the United States February 26th should be proposed on February 26 Weekly applied for data on the number of unemployed gold, the new order data of the US in January, and the non -manufacturing PMI data in the United States February in February

5. February 18 (Friday): The U.S. unemployment data in February in February, the number of non -agricultural employment in the United States in February

Global asset price trend

东海周报:俄乌局势进一步升级叠加国内调控趋严,商品价格剧烈波动

Domestic macro high -frequency data: upstream

CRB Commodity Index

Source: Wind, Donghai Futures Research Institute organized

东海周报:俄乌局势进一步升级叠加国内调控趋严,商品价格剧烈波动

Domestic South China Commodity Index

International crude oil price

US commercial crude oil and API crude oil inventory changes

Domestic power coal market price

Domestic coal port inventory

Domestic main coke coke market price

Domestic coking plants, steel mills and port coking coal inventory

The operating rate of domestic coking enterprises

东海周报:俄乌局势进一步升级叠加国内调控趋严,商品价格剧烈波动

Domestic coking plants, steel plants and port coke inventory

Iron ore price at home and abroad

东海周报:俄乌局势进一步升级叠加国内调控趋严,商品价格剧烈波动

Main port iron ore inventory

BDI index

东海周报:俄乌局势进一步升级叠加国内调控趋严,商品价格剧烈波动

Domestic dry bulk freight index

Domestic macro high -frequency data: midstream

东海周报:俄乌局势进一步升级叠加国内调控趋严,商品价格剧烈波动

Domestic steel price index

Steel inventory changes

The start rate of the country and Tangshan blast furnace

Steel production of major steel mills nationwide

LME copper aluminum zinc spot price

东海周报:俄乌局势进一步升级叠加国内调控趋严,商品价格剧烈波动

Source: Wind, Donghai Futures Research Institute organized

Source: Wind, Donghai Futures Research Institute organized

Source: Wind, Donghai Futures Research Institute organized

Source: Wind, Donghai Futures Research Institute organized

Source: Wind, Donghai Futures Research Institute organized

Source: Wind, Donghai Futures Research Institute organized

Source: Wind, Donghai Futures Research Institute organized

东海周报:俄乌局势进一步升级叠加国内调控趋严,商品价格剧烈波动

Source: Wind, Donghai Futures Research Institute organized

东海周报:俄乌局势进一步升级叠加国内调控趋严,商品价格剧烈波动

Source: Wind, Donghai Futures Research Institute organized

Source: Wind, Donghai Futures Research Institute organized

Source: Wind, Donghai Futures Research Institute organized

Source: Wind, Donghai Futures Research Institute organized

Source: Wind, Donghai Futures Research Institute organized

东海周报:俄乌局势进一步升级叠加国内调控趋严,商品价格剧烈波动

Source: Wind, Donghai Futures Research Institute organized

Source: Wind, Donghai Futures Research Institute organized

东海周报:俄乌局势进一步升级叠加国内调控趋严,商品价格剧烈波动

Source: Wind, Donghai Futures Research Institute organized

Source: Wind, Donghai Futures Research Institute organized

Source: Wind, Donghai Futures Research Institute organized

LME copper aluminum zinc total inventory change

National cement price index

东海周报:俄乌局势进一步升级叠加国内调控趋严,商品价格剧烈波动

National cement and clinker library capacity

Domestic macro high -frequency data: downstream

The transaction area of commercial housing changes

Supply land occupying land changes

Daily daily average manufacturers wholesale and retail sales changes

Automotive tires and semi -steel tire operating rates

Wholesale price index of domestic agricultural products and vegetable basket products

东海周报:俄乌局势进一步升级叠加国内调控趋严,商品价格剧烈波动

Domestic vegetables, fruits, eggs and pork prices change

Global liquidity reference index

Global short -term liquidity market trend

东海周报:俄乌局势进一步升级叠加国内调控趋严,商品价格剧烈波动

Global short -term liquidity weekly change unit: BP

东海周报:俄乌局势进一步升级叠加国内调控趋严,商品价格剧烈波动

US Treasury yield

U.S. Treasury yield Weekly change unit: BP

The central bank’s open market is launched

Reverse repurchase expiration number

Domestic bank interbank borrowing interest rate

Travel interest rate changes in peers

Source: East China Futures Research Institute organized

Domestic bank repurchase interest rate

东海周报:俄乌局势进一步升级叠加国内调控趋严,商品价格剧烈波动

Source: Wind, Donghai Futures Research Institute organized

东海周报:俄乌局势进一步升级叠加国内调控趋严,商品价格剧烈波动

Domestic bank repurchase interest rate week change unit: BP

东海周报:俄乌局势进一步升级叠加国内调控趋严,商品价格剧烈波动

Domestic government bond interest rate

东海周报:俄乌局势进一步升级叠加国内调控趋严,商品价格剧烈波动

Domestic government bond interest rate week change unit: BP

Global Finance Calendar

This article comes from Donghai Futures Research

东海周报:俄乌局势进一步升级叠加国内调控趋严,商品价格剧烈波动

Source: Wind, Donghai Futures Research Institute organized

Source: Wind, Donghai Futures Research Institute organized

东海周报:俄乌局势进一步升级叠加国内调控趋严,商品价格剧烈波动

Source: Wind, Donghai Futures Research Institute organized

Source: Wind, Donghai Futures Research Institute organized

东海周报:俄乌局势进一步升级叠加国内调控趋严,商品价格剧烈波动

Source: Wind, Donghai Futures Research Institute organized

东海周报:俄乌局势进一步升级叠加国内调控趋严,商品价格剧烈波动

Source: Wind, Donghai Futures Research Institute organized

Source: Wind, Donghai Futures Research Institute organized

Source: Wind, Donghai Futures Research Institute organized

Source: Wind, Donghai Futures Research Institute organized

Source: Wind, Donghai Futures Research Institute organized

Source: Wind, Donghai Futures Research Institute organized

东海周报:俄乌局势进一步升级叠加国内调控趋严,商品价格剧烈波动

Source: Wind, Donghai Futures Research Institute organized

Source: Wind, Donghai Futures Research Institute organized

东海周报:俄乌局势进一步升级叠加国内调控趋严,商品价格剧烈波动

Source: Wind, Donghai Futures Research Institute organized

Source: Wind, Donghai Futures Research Institute organized

Source: Wind, Donghai Futures Research Institute organized

Source: East China Futures Research Institute organized

Source: East China Futures Research Institute organized

Author: ArticleManager